A new politics: What next after Gorton and Denton?

A significant moment in UK politics occurred in the small hours of Friday morning. The result of the Gorton and Denton by-election was announced as a win for the Green Party and their candidate, Hannah Spencer. Labour, who won the seat comfortably in the 2024 general election came in third behind Reform, who took second place.

The ramifications of this election are yet to be fully felt. But it will certainly lead to soul-searching within the Labour Party and will likely reignite calls for the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, to step aside and for a new leader to take charge.

The previous incumbent of the position of MP for Gorton and Denton was Labour’s Andrew Gwynne, who won by 13,000 votes in 2024, ahead of Reform and the Green Party. Gwynne was then suspended by Labour in February 2025, effectively becoming an independent MP, after he sent a string of offensive WhatsApp messages. Gwynne stood down as an MP last month, citing health concerns, triggering the by-election.

The intrigue continued as popular Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, expressed a desire to run as the Labour candidate. Burnham is widely seen as a potential challenger to Keir Starmer for Prime Minister, and he was blocked from standing by Labour’s National Executive Committee. The committee said that the cost of then running an election for mayor would be too expensive, but many saw the decision by allies of the Prime Minister as a move to stave off a leadership challenge.

Over recent weeks, polling in Gorton and Denton have shown the election as a three-horse race, with Labour, Reform and the Greens on roughly equal footing. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats were effectively out of the running. Most polls had Reform as the front runner but the latest poll days before the election saw the Greens take a narrow lead over the other two parties.

When the votes were cast and the results tallied, the race was not as close as the polls predicted. The Green Party candidate, Hannah Spencer, won by a significant margin, taking 14,980 votes and a 41% share. Reform’s Matt Goodwin took 10,578 votes and 29%, just ahead of Labour’s Angeliki Stogia with 9,364 and 25%. Neither the Conservatives or the Liberal Democrats achieved more than 1,000 votes and lost their deposits for the election.

The news this morning has got political commentators, and politicians themselves, in a spin. But what about the rest of us? Apart from those living in the constituency of Gorton and Denton, who now have a new elected representative, why does this by-election make a difference?

One of the reasons that this by-election has had so much attention is the competitiveness of both Reform and the Green Party, made even more important by the significant win of the seat by the Greens.

We have seen this coming for a while in other elections and by-elections, but this campaign has solidified the fact that we no longer live in a two-party political system. The dominance of Labour and the Conservatives which has been the political landscape for decades has been replaced by five parties vying for power. The rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform, and the revitalisation of the Green Party under Zack Polanski, has translated into votes and the election of candidates.

PollCheck’s average of recent national polls has Reform ahead on over 27%, ahead of Labour and the Conservatives around 20% and the Green Party and Liberal Democrats around 13%. Reform have been ahead in this aggregate poll for 300 consecutive days.

The Conservatives have not been strong in Gorton and Denton, winning under 3,000 votes in the 2024 general election, representing just 7.9%. But their faring in this by-election has been dismal: just 706 of the votes cast and 1.9% of the share. They lost their deposit – the money that you need to front in order to stand as a candidate – something that usually only happens with fringe parties. The Liberal Democrats did even worse.

Labour have lost a seat which they won with a majority of around 13,000. Of course, the party in power rarely does well in a by-election; voting is usually seen as a protest against the government. But the wide margin of victory by the Green Party should give us pause. As Green Party leader, Zack Polanski, has said following their victory, protest votes don’t win elections with a 4,000 majority.

There is plenty of time between now and the next general election, and much can happen between now and then. But it’s clear that we are in a new political landscape, much different from the one many of us have known in the past.

There is nothing Biblical about a two-party, or three-party political system. When Paul writes to the Romans that “there is no authority except that which God has established” (Romans 13:1), he is speaking in the context of the Roman Empire. The Bible sees government as a good thing, not a particular party political arrangement. A new political landscape does not stop our desire to see politics renewed for the glory of God.

However, when a greater number of viable parties are still vying for the same number of votes, it becomes harder to be heard among the crowd and get your message across. To distinguish themselves from their political rivals, a party might be tempted to be more outspoken, more partisan, and more extreme. Politicians can run toward the Right or the Left, leaving the Centre unrepresented.

Right-wing or left-wing politics are not inherently bad, but extremes can be. They can foster hatred and demonisation, especially of those who are different from us, from immigrants to the wealthy. We have seen this already in this by-election, with the Green Party asking voters to “make Labour pay” for their Middle East policies, Reform’s Matthew Goodwin standing by claims that UK-born people from minority ethnic backgrounds are not necessarily British, and the Prime Minister claiming that if Reform won the area would “descend into hostility”.

Paul tells the Colossians: “Let your conversation be always full of grace, seasoned with salt” (Colossians 4:6). Salt was added to sacrifices in the Old Testament, so Paul is teaching that the words that we say should not only be full of grace, but also offered to God in worship. That should be the case for our political conversations as much as any other speech.

Sectarian and partisan politics can be filled with division, attacks, and negativity. The more parties that are in the electoral mix, the more we need to advocate for a better way of doing politics, with words that are full of grace, with positive solutions rather than divisiveness.

Some people have claimed that the Green Party’s success in Gorton and Denton is due to their messaging about Gaza. Cabinet ministers raised concerns in private that the Greens pushed past Labour by “deliberately raising the salience of Gaza in the constituency”.

Gorton and Denton is a constituency of two halves. Gorton, on the east side, is very diverse with large student and Muslim populations. Denton, on the west, is a working class, post-industrial town with an older population who are 91% white.

The Green Party have worked hard to pursue the support of Muslim voters, producing campaign videos in Urdu and accusing Reform’s Matthew Goodwin of being someone who would “fuel the flames of Islamophobia”. Goodwin responded by saying: “If you want an MP who will obsess over Gaza, prioritise the Muslim vote, and put some communities before others, then vote Green. But if you want an MP who will prioritise the people of Gorton & Denton, then vote Reform.”

Green Party leader, Zack Polanski, who is Jewish, said this week that he would support defining Zionism as racism if it were tied to the actions of the Israeli government. “If we’re talking about the definition that this Israeli government are clearly perpetrating through a genocide in Gaza, then yes, absolutely. That’s racist” he said. The Green Party’s election leaflet in Urdu contained the message: “Push the falling walls one more time. Labour must be punished for Gaza. Reform must be defeated, and Green must be voted for. Vote for the Green Party for a strong voice for Muslims.”

Some voters have wondered what Gaza, some 2,400 miles away from Gorton and Denton, has to do with this election. It shows the increasing role that religion is playing in our national politics. It is difficult to say whether their rhetoric about Gaza won the election for the Green’s, but it is certainly a factor. Matthew Goodwin has said that “Islamists and woke progressives came together to dominate the constituency.”

Reform, for their part, have said that they will “restore Britain’s Christian heritage” blaming immigration for a loss of Christian ‘values’. Zia Yusuf, Reform’s home affairs spokesperson and a practising Muslim, has said: “I do think a sense of belief in God and patriotism, while they’re not necessarily the same thing — I think there is some connection there.”

Political messages which target religious voters also come at a time when the idea of Christian Nationalism is on the rise. Far-right activists like Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, also known as Tommy Robinson, have co-opted Christian messages for their cause.

The Christian gospel is not a method for winning votes (and I would imagine Muslims would say the same about Islam). I am wary of politicians who co-opt Christianity on the campaign trail. It seems an easy way to say “vote for me because I am like you.” I would rather see that a politician is working for the things that please God in their policies and decision making. The kind of things that are talked about in Psalm 82:

Those qualities, more than ‘religious branding’, are the things that are more likely to win my vote.

This by-election began with a battle over Labour’s candidate and worries about a leadership challenge for the Prime Minister. While Andy Burnham was prevented from standing, the danger for Keir Starmer has not disappeared.

If Labour were to have won in Gorton and Denton, it is possible that the pressure would be off the Prime Minister. But a win for either Reform or the Green Party would put the spotlight back on Keir Starmer’s premiership and how long it might last. The fact that the Greens won with a wide margin means that questions will be asked about how long Starmer might be in Downing Street.

The speculation has already begun. One Labour MP texted the BBC’s political editor during the night to say “Keir needs to own this. He's out of chances”. The general secretary of Unison, one of the key unions backing Labour, said: “Under Keir Starmer the party is failing on every count, leaving the Greens to fill the vacuum.” Labour MP Richard Burgon has said on social media: “Blame for Labour’s defeat lies squarely with Keir Starmer and his clique”.

This election result will be seen by many as the final straw. Labour has been slipping ever lower in the polls and the Prime Minister has become the least popular leader since Liz Truss, and possibly even more unpopular depending on how you read the figures. Sir Keir Starmer has responded to the by-election news by saying that he understands that voters are “frustrated” and “impatient for change” and said: "I will keep on fighting for those people for as long as I've got breath in my body."

By-elections are often seen as a protest vote against the government. If so, the voters of Gorton and Denton have certainly registered a protest. This staunchly Labour heartland has rejected the current Labour candidate. In political terms, it is clear that something needs to change.

Is this Keir Starmer’s fault? That is a complex question. The government does not hang entirely around one person’s shoulders, even if that person is Prime Minister. Nevertheless, he is the leader of the party in government and therefore does need to take some responsibility for their fortunes.

When God speaks against the leaders of God’s people for neglecting their work and leading the people into exile, he says: “I am against the shepherds and will hold them accountable for my flock.” (Ezekiel 34:10) Accountability and responsibility are things that we should look for in godly leaders.

However, changing leaders every time something goes wrong is not a healthy way to act either. The writer of Ecclesiastes, when examining the brokenness of a fallen world, concludes: “Whatever your hand finds to do, do it with all your might” (Ecclesiastes 9:10). We need leaders who are committed to the task, willing to do it with all their might and not give up. Commitment and responsibility need to go hand in hand.

Whether or not there will be an imminent leadership challenge, this result for Labour signals a need to reassess their position and direction. Something isn’t working, and so surely something needs to change?

Angela Rayner, former Deputy Prime-Minister, certainly thinks so. Speaking in the aftermath of the by-election, she said: “If we want to unrig the system, if we want to make the change we were sent into government to make, we have to be braver”.

What does it look like to be braver? Strangely, it might look like being unpopular.

One of the dangers of a by-election like this is that the government swings in response to the way the electorate have voted. Up to this point, Labour have spent time and energy responding to the rise of Reform. Their performance in the 2024 general election, and increased support in recent polls, have caused the government to chase after policies and issues that speak to potential Reform voters.

The trouble with this approach is that you let Reform and Nigel Farage set the agenda for government. The Labour MP who texted the BBC’s Chris Mason in the middle of the night also said, “You can't claim to be the party of unity when you're adopting the divisive policies of Reform. Vote Labour to stop Reform rings hollow when you're mimicking them.”

This approach has not worked, as seen in Gorton and Denton, so a swing to left is likely. The by-election result may be saying that people feel the Green Party are the new party of left wing politics. Labour seems to be losing supporters to Polanski’s party. So Labour might respond by moving to the left, adopting more radical policies and responding to some of the Green Party’s more extreme views.

Election results give you a sense of what is, or is not, popular. But doing what is popular is not always the right thing. Popularity is about giving people what they want; true leadership is about giving people what they need.

Politicians should certainly listen to those they represent, and represent them well. They are called to serve those in their constituency and country, as Paul tells the Romans “the one in authority is God’s servant for your good.” (Romans 13:4)

But working for the good of others sometimes means doing what is unpopular in order to truly serve the people. Godly leadership seeks to serve Jesus first of all, because this is the best way to serve others. Paul tells the Galatians:

Politicians try to win the approval of people – that is how they are elected. But once elected they walk a tightrope between serving others and doing what is right. That is not always a clear or easy path to take.

Leadership is essential in politics. We elect MPs to make hard choices and difficult decisions. They are not monarchs, but they should represent the truth of Proverbs 16:12 that: “Kings detest wrongdoing, for a throne is established through righteousness.” I am not guaranteeing that Labour can hold their ‘throne’ in the next election, but the best way to serve the people is to pursue righteousness. That is what ought to be evaluated at the ballot box.